New Forest Housing Needs Assessment

August 2025 2

1. Key Findings

1.1 New Forest District Council and New Forest National Park Authority have commissioned Iceni Projects to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment report (SHMA).

1.2 As of 2022, the New Forest District Plan Area has a population of approximately 145,600 and (- 0.3% since 2011). The New Forest National Park had a population of 34,389 in 2022. (-1.6% since 2011).

1.3 In the year to March 2024, the median house price in the District Plan Area was £385,000 and £650,000 in the National Park. This compares to the national median of £287,500.

1.4 The Standard Method for assessing housing need sets a figure of 1,511 dwellings per annum for the New Forest (District-wide). This is a “policy-off” calculation of housing need and does not take account of designations or constraints.

1.5 We also considered that 83% of this need figure should be attributed to the New Forest District Plan Area, based on the proportion of the overall housing stock in the area of the New Forest District outside the National Park (17% of the housing stock in the New Forest District is located within the National Park). This does not mean the difference between the district's need and the plan area's need should be met in the National Park.

1.6 It is considered that housing delivery in the New Forest District and National Park will ultimately be constrained by land supply.

1.7 The analysis suggests there will be a need for both social and affordable rented housing, but that social rents could be prioritised where delivery does not prejudice the overall delivery of affordable homes.

1.8 Our recommended housing mix is set out below:

Suggested size mix of housing by tenure – New Forest DPA

Suggested size mix of housing by tenure – New Forest National Park

Source: Iceni Analysis

1.9 The mix identified above could inform strategic policies, although a flexible approach should be adopted on a site-by-site basis.

1.10 The older person population is projected to increase by 32% in the district and a 24% in the National Park.

1.11 This results in a need for around 1,900 sheltered/retirement housing units in the District Plan Area and 700 in the National Park. There is also a need for 1,200 extra-care units in the district plan area and 350 in the National Park, and 1,200 nursing and residential care bedspaces in the District Plan Area.

1.12 There is also a need for around 550 wheelchair user homes in the District Plan Area and 120 in the National Park.

2. Executive Summary

2.1 New Forest District Council and New Forest National Park Authority have commissioned Iceni Projects to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment report (SHMA).

2.2 This SHMA aims to provide an evidence base on housing need and mix which will inform local planning policy.

Demographic and Housing Stock Baseline (Chapter 6)

2.3 As of 2022, the New Forest District Plan Area has a population of approximately 145,600 and has seen a slight population decline since 2011 (-0.3%).

2.4 The New Forest National Park area had a population of 34,389 in 2022. and has had a small population decline of 1.6% since 2011.

2.5 Both the District Plan Area and National Park area have an older population compared to regional and national benchmarks. Approximately half of the residents in these areas are aged 50 and over.

2.6 In the National Park, the older age profile is even more pronounced, with around 34% of the population aged 65 and over. This is higher than the 29% observed in the District Plan Area.

2.7 Single-family households are the most common household type in the National Park Area and District Plan Area. Higher than average rates of couples without children in the National Park and the District Plan Area suggest a prevalence of empty nesters, given the older population profile.

2.8 In the District Plan Area, there were 69,607 dwellings as of 2023, which was an increase of 5.3% since the time of the 2011 Census. In the National Park area, there were 15,503 dwellings as of 2023, which was an increase of 1.4% since the time of the 2011 Census. Both levels of dwelling stock growth are much lower than that seen in wider geographies.

2.9 The National Park’s housing stock is dominated by detached properties, and the dwelling size profile is skewed toward larger homes, with 39% of dwellings having four or more bedrooms.

2.10 The District Plan Area also features a high proportion of detached housing. However, there is a more balanced mix of typologies and sizes with a greater share of two- and three-bedroom properties, and greater proportions of dwelling types other than detached.

2.11 There are high levels of home ownership in both the District Plan Area (74%) and the National Park (81%) as of 2021. There is a lower reliance on both private and, particularly, social renting in both areas, compared to regional and national averages.

2.12 There are particularly high levels of under-occupation in the National Park area, although in comparison to the national and regional picture, the same can be said for the District Plan Area.

Housing Market Baseline (Chapter 7)

2.13 In the year to March 2024, the median house price in the District Plan Area was £385,000. This was more expensive than the national median (£287,500) but less expensive than across Hampshire and the South East.

2.14 The New Forest National Park area is comparatively much more expensive, with a median house price of £650,000. This is the highest median house price of the 15 UK National Parks and also reflects the house price premium people will pay to live in a National Park.

2.15 Median house price growth across the District Plan Area was similar to the wider comparators between 2012 and 2016. But since 2016, prices in the county and region have grown more strongly.

2.16 Reflective on the stock, recent sales activity has been focused on larger typologies in both the New Forest District Local Plan and National Park areas.

2.17 Over the previous decade, all sub-areas have had a negative downward trend in sales activity – the largest downturn can be observed in the Southern Coastal area.

2.18 In the National Park area, the lower quartile price was £458,750 in 2024. This is significantly greater than Hampshire, the South East region and very significantly greater than the national lower quartile price (£190,000). This demonstrates the difficulty in accessing the market for first-time buyers.

2.19 The affordability ratio for New Forest in the year ending September 2024 was 11.39. This was notably higher than that in the region (9.61), Hampshire (9.6), and observed nationally (7.71).

Overall Housing Need (Chapter 9)

2.20 The Standard Method for assessing housing need sets a figure of 1,511 dwellings per annum for the New Forest (District). It should be noted that the standard method housing need figures are produced by the Government for ‘local authority’ areas, rather than ‘local planning authority’ areas, with the National Park Authority being the latter but not the former.

2.21 A key reason for the Government seeking higher housing figures is that worsening affordability is evidence that supply is failing to keep up with demand.

2.22 We have also considered that the housing need for the District Plan Area is 1,254 dpa, which is 83% of the district-wide figure. This does not mean the difference between the overall New Forest District need and the District Plan area need (257 dpa) should be met in the National Park.

2.23 It is considered that housing delivery in the New Forest will ultimately be constrained by land supply, and on this basis, three scenarios have been developed to look at how the population might develop over time.

2.24 The main scenario models for housing delivery of 520 dwellings per annum in the District Plan Area and 40 in the National Park – this area includes small parts outside of the New Forest District in Test Valley Borough and south Wiltshire. This scenario is based on the current adopted development plan housing targets for the District and National Park areas.

2.25 For the District Plan Area, this projection sees a population increase of around 16,200, and the population aged 65 and over is projected to see an increase.

2.26 In the National Park, there is projected to be a very small population growth (0.2%) with the delivery of 40 dwellings per annum. But within this growth, a decrease in the population aged under 65 is projected, along with an increase of 24% in the population aged 65 and over.

2.27 In moving forward, this report bases key analysis on this delivery-based scenario (e.g. such as analysis around housing mix and older person needs, as this draws from demographic projections).

2.28 A further appendix has been provided that re-runs this analysis for the other two dwelling-led scenarios. This includes a low scenario of 310 dpa and a high scenario of 720 dpa. The appendix also includes analysis of the Standard Method (1,511 dpa)

Affordable Housing Need (Chapter 10)

2.29 The analysis has taken into account local housing costs (to both buy and rent) along with estimates of household income. The evidence indicates that there is an acute need for affordable housing in the study area and a need in all sub-areas. The majority of need is from households who are unable to buy OR rent and therefore points particularly towards a need for rented affordable housing rather than affordable home ownership (AHO).

2.30 Despite the level of need being high, it is not considered that this points to any requirement for the local planning authorities to increase their respective Local Plan housing requirements due to affordable needs.

2.31 That said, the level of affordable need does suggest the local planning authorities should maximise the delivery of such housing at every opportunity.

2.32 The analysis suggests there will be a need for both social and affordable rented housing – the latter will be suitable, particularly for households who are close to being able to afford to rent privately and possibly also for some households who claim full Housing Benefit.

2.33 However, it is clear that social rents are more affordable and could benefit a wider range of households – social rents could therefore be prioritised where delivery does not prejudice the overall delivery of affordable homes.

2.34 The study also considers different types of AHO (notably First Homes and shared ownership) as each may have a role to play. Shared ownership is likely to be suitable for households with more marginal affordability (those only just able to afford to privately rent) as it has the advantage of a lower deposit and subsidised rent.

2.35 Given the cost of housing locally, it seems very difficult for affordable home ownership products to be provided and be considered as ‘genuinely affordable’ (particularly for larger (3+-bedroom) homes. This again points to the need for the Council and Authority to prioritise the delivery of rented affordable housing where possible.

2.36 In deciding what types of affordable housing to provide, including a split between rented and home ownership products, the Council and Authority will need to consider the relative levels of need and also viability issues (recognising for example that providing AHO may be more viable and may therefore allow more units to be delivered, but at the same time noting that households with a need for rented housing are likely to have more acute needs and fewer housing options).

2.37 Overall, the analysis identifies a notable need for affordable housing, and it is clear that the provision of new affordable housing is an important and pressing issue in the area.

2.38 It does, however, need to be stressed that this report does not provide an affordable housing target; the amount of affordable housing delivered will be limited to the amount that can viably be provided.

2.39 The evidence does, however, suggest that affordable housing delivery should be maximised where opportunities arise.

Housing Mix (Chapter 11)

2.40 Analysis of the future mix of housing required takes account of demographic change, including potential changes to the number of family households and the ageing of the population.

2.41 The proportion of households with dependent children in the New Forest District is below average, with around 23% of all households containing dependent children in 2021 (compared with around 29% regionally and nationally).

2.42 There are notable differences between different types of households, with married couples (with dependent children) seeing a high level of owner-occupation, whereas lone parents are particularly likely to live in social or private rented accommodation.

2.43 There is a range of factors which will influence demand for different sizes of homes, including demographic changes, future growth in real earnings and households’ ability to save, economic performance and housing affordability.

2.44 The analysis linked to future demographic change concludes that the following represents an appropriate mix of affordable and market homes, this takes account of both household changes and the ageing of the population as well as seeking to make more efficient use of new stock by not projecting forward the high levels of under-occupancy (which is notable in the market sector).

2.45 In all sectors, the analysis points to a particular need for smaller accommodation, with varying proportions of 3+-bedroom homes. For general need, rented affordable housing, there is a clear need for a range of different sizes of homes, including 45% to have at least 3 bedrooms, of which 10% should have at least 4 bedrooms. Our recommended mix is set out below:

Suggested size mix of housing by tenure – New Forest DPA

Source: Iceni Analysis

Suggested size mix of housing by tenure – New Forest National Park

Source: Iceni Analysis

2.46 The strategic conclusions in the affordable sector recognise the role which the delivery of larger family homes can play in releasing a supply of smaller properties for other households.

2.47 Also recognised is the limited flexibility which 1-bedroom properties offer to changing household circumstances, which feed through into higher turnover and management issues.

2.48 The conclusions also take account of the current mix of housing by tenure and the size requirements shown on the Housing Register.

2.49 The mix identified above could inform strategic policies, although a flexible approach should be adopted, as other policies might impact that, including the current New Forest National Park planning policies limiting net new dwellings to 100 sqm in recognition of the pressing local need for smaller properties within the National Park.

2.50 An example of where it can be used flexibly is that in some areas, affordable housing registered providers find difficulties selling 1-bedroom affordable home ownership (AHO) homes; therefore, the 1-bedroom elements of AHO might be better provided as 2-bedroom accommodation. That said, given current house prices, there are potential difficulties in making (larger) AHO genuinely affordable.

2.51 Additionally, in applying the mix to individual development sites, regard should be had to the nature of the site and character of the area, and up-to-date evidence of need as well as the existing mix and turnover of properties at the local level. The local planning authorities should also monitor the mix of housing delivered.

Private Rental Sector (Chapter 8)

2.52 This study has not attempted to estimate the need for additional private rented housing. The decision of households to buy or rent is dependent on multiple factors, including the availability and cost of housing to buy. If the supply of housing increases, then this potentially means that more households would be able to buy, but who would otherwise be renting.

2.53 Rental activity has decreased year on year since 2021, following the pandemic-related increases in activity.

2.54 Between 2011 and 2021, the number of households privately renting in the District Plan Area (DPA) grew by 12%. In contrast, the number of households privately renting in the National Park area declined by -3%.

2.55 In 2024, overall median rental costs in the New Forest were £995 per calendar month. Rental prices are generally higher than the national median (£850) but remain below the regional median (£1,050).

2.56 Rental costs in the New Forest increased by 40% between September 2011 and September 2023. This growth is lower than the regional and national trends.

2.57 In 2024, there were around 35 HMO units, which is a very small share of New Forest’s housing stock and does not merit specific policy.

Housing for older people and those with a disability (Chapter 12)

2.58 A range of data sources and statistics have been accessed to consider the characteristics and housing needs of the older person population and the population with some form of disability. The two groups are taken together as there is a clear link between age and disability.

2.59 The data shows that the New Forest has an older age structure than seen regionally or nationally, but lower levels of disability compared with the national average. The older person population shows high proportions of owner-occupation, particularly outright owners who may have significant equity in their homes (82% of all older person households are outright owners).

2.60 The older person population is projected to increase notably moving forward. An ageing population means that the number of people with disabilities is likely to increase substantially. Key findings for the 2023-43 period include:

• a 30% increase in the population aged 65+ in the DPA (potentially accounting for 79% of total population growth) and a 23% increase in the National Park (which is more than total population growth – i.e. a decline in the number of people aged under 65);

• a 51% increase in the number of people aged 65+ with dementia and a 42% increase in those aged 65+ with mobility problems in the DPA (43% and 35% respectively for the National Park);
• a need for around 1,800 additional housing units with support (sheltered/retirement housing) in the DPA and 700 in the National Park – mainly in the affordable sector;
• a need for around 1,100 additional housing units with care (e.g. extra-care) in the DPA and 300 in the National Park – the majority in the market sector;
• a need for additional nursing and residential care bedspaces (around 1,200 in the period) in the DPA (no clear need in the National Park); and
• a need for around 660 dwellings to be for wheelchair users (meeting technical standard M4(3)) – 540 in the DPA and 120 in the National Park.

2.61 This would suggest that there is a clear need to increase the supply of accessible and adaptable dwellings and wheelchair-user dwellings, as well as providing specific provision of older persons housing.

2.62 Given the evidence, the authorities could consider (as a starting point) requiring all dwellings (in all tenures) to meet the M4(2) standards and around 5% of homes meeting M4(3) – wheelchair-user dwellings in the market sector (a higher proportion of around 10% in the affordable sector).

2.63 Where the Council has nomination rights, the supply of M4(3) dwellings would be wheelchair-accessible dwellings (constructed for immediate occupation) and, in the market sector, they should be wheelchair-user adaptable dwellings (constructed to be adjustable for occupation by a wheelchair user). It should, however, be noted that there will be cases where this may not be possible (e.g. due to viability or site-specific circumstances) and so any policy should be applied flexibly.

2.64 In framing policies for the provision of specialist older persons accommodation, the authorities will need to consider a range of issues. This will include the different use classes of accommodation (i.e. C2 vs. C3) and requirements for affordable housing contributions (linked to this, the viability of provision). There may also be some practical issues to consider, such as the ability of any individual development being mixed tenure, given the way care and support services are paid for).

The Needs of Other Specific Groups (Chapter 13)

Service Personnel

2.65 The New Forest is home to one Military Establishment, Marchwood Port, which has a dual military and civilian use. In April 2024, there were 620 MoD personnel stationed in New Forest, 580 regular forces and 40 civilians, a decline from a high of 820 in April 2012.

2.66 Overall, the presence of regular forces in the New Forest is not considered to be significant and is unlikely to have any material implications on local affordability.

2.67 It is considered that the most pressing issue is likely to be finding accommodation for those transitioning out of the forces, as well as existing personnel who are seeking to buy in the District or National Park.

2.68 The provision of low-cost home ownership can help account for this, as well as the Allocation of Housing regulations, which allow military personnel to establish local connections to the area.

2.69 Overall, this group are likely to already be accounted for within affordable housing need and is not considered to be additional to it.

Students

2.70 There are no higher education providers/facilities in the National Park or New Forest District, and the 2021 Census reported only 86 persons living in all student households in the New Forest District. There is therefore no justification for a specific policy relating to student housing in the District or National Park.

Custom and Self-Build

2.71 The Levelling Up and Regeneration Act made amendments to the way demand/need and supply of self and custom-built dwellings are calculated. Need must be calculated cumulatively with supply permissions needing to now be able to demonstrate that they will result in a self or custom build dwelling.

2.72 On average, there is a need for around 50 plots per base period based on part trends. Although there is a question around double-counting, the Council is also not meeting need, and the backlog will also need to be addressed.

2.73 The National Park Authority has also failed to meet demand for self- and custom-build plots, and there is currently an unmet need for 71 plots, which will need to be addressed within the context of a nationally protected landscape and the associated primary legislation and national planning policy. In addition, if past trends continue, there will be a need to identify around 50 plots per base period.

2.74 Broader demand evidence indicates a lower need for 171 plots in the National Park and 208 plots in the District Plan Area. Despite this figure being lower, the Authorities still have a duty to permit enough plots for self and custom build as indicated by the register.

2.75 As a general rule, the authorities should be supportive of opportunities for Self and Custom build development within Local Plans and could potentially require a proportion of plots on larger schemes to be marketed for Self or Custom Build use.

Children’s Care Homes

2.76 Hampshire County Council’s Children and Young Persons strategy outlines an ambition to transform Children’s Care through six pillars. The first of these pillars makes it clear that providing support to families is the first priority. The strategy recognises that this is not always available or the best option for the child, and as such, Pillar 4 seeks to ensure that the care system provides a stable and loving home close to the child’s community.

2.77 The New Forest currently has one Hampshire County Council residential care home within Totton with 5-6 bedspaces; there are an additional 19 residential care homes that are independently operated with 67 bedspaces across them, although not all bedspaces are in use at any one time.

2.78 There is a rising number of children who have experienced trauma or have complex mental health and behavioural needs. This is driving an urgent requirement for more specialised and flexible residential options.

3. Introduction

3.1 New Forest District Council (NFDC) and New Forest National Park Authority (NFNPA) have commissioned Iceni Projects to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (“SHMA”). This SHMA provides an evidence base on housing need and mix which will inform local planning policy and decision making.

3.2 This document will be brought together with other evidence-based documents to inform the future strategy for the scale and distribution of housing growth within the area, with reasonable alternatives tested through the plan-making and Sustainability Appraisal process. This assessment does not set targets but provides robust evidence to inform those in the respective New Forest District and New Forest National Park Authority Local Plans.

3.3 The report is based on the best and most up-to-date information available at the time of drafting – this was around January 2025. The report therefore incorporates changes to the National Planning Policy Framework published in December 2024. The authorities should, however, continue to monitor and sense-check new data releases and respond to anything material to plan-making.

3.4 That said, we have incorporated the latest affordability ratios published in March 2025 as a key component of calculating housing need.

Time Period and Geography

3.5 This report examines housing need over the 2023 to 2043 period to align with the emerging Local Plans for the two local planning authorities.

3.6 The geographic scope of the report includes

• The New Forest District Planning Area, which covers the parts of the District outside the National Park.
• The New Forest National Park (NFNP), which includes much of the land area of the New Forest District, but not all, and extends outside of the New Forest District boundary and into the Wiltshire and Test Valley local authorities.

Figure 3.1 New Forest District and New Forest National Park

Source: Iceni Projects based on OS Data

3.7 Throughout the report, we refer to the New Forest District and New Forest National Park separately. The District includes those parts within the National Park, and the National Park includes those areas outside of the District (in Test Valley and Wiltshire). We also refer to the District Plan Area, which is the area of the District outside of the National Park, where the New Forest District Council is the local planning authority.

3.8 The report also examines and presents an analysis for defined Sub-Areas within the New Forest. The justification for the Sub-Areas and their boundaries are available in Chapter 5 below.

4. Policy Review

National Planning Policy Framework

4.1 The latest version of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published by the Government in December 2024. The NPPF sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied.

4.2 Paragraph 7 in the NPPF states that the purpose of planning is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development. It sets out that planning policies and decisions should play an active role in guiding development towards sustainable solutions, but in doing so should take local circumstances into account, to reflect the character, needs and opportunities of each area.

4.3 Paragraph 17 of the NPPF states that development plans must include strategic policies to address each local planning authority’s priorities for the development and use of land in its area.

4.4 Paragraph 16 states that Plans should be prepared with the objective of contributing to the achievement of sustainable development and be positively prepared in a way that is aspirational but deliverable.

4.5 Strategic policies should, as a minimum, provide for objectively assessed needs for housing and other uses, as well as any needs that cannot be met within neighbouring authorities, where it is sustainable to do so. Paragraph 11 b reiterates that for plan-making:

“strategic policies should, as a minimum, provide for objectively assessed needs for housing and other uses, as well as any needs that cannot be met within the neighbouring area, unless…i) the application of policies in this Framework that protect areas or assets of particular importance provides a strong reason for restricting the overall scale, type or distribution of development in the plan area; or ii) any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when assessed against the policies in this Framework taken as a whole.”

4.6 To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, Paragraph 61 in the NPPF states that it is important that a sufficient amount and variety of land can come forward where it is needed, that the needs of groups with specific housing requirements are addressed and that land with permission is developed without unnecessary delay. Adding “The overall aim should be to meet an area’s identified housing need, including an appropriate mix of housing types for the local community”.

4.7 Paragraph 62 sets out that to determine the minimum number of homes needed, strategic policies should be informed by a local housing need assessment (this report), conducted using the standard method in national planning guidance. We have provided more detail on the calculation of the standard method in Chapter 8 of this report.

4.8 The PPG (Paragraph: 014 Reference ID: 2a-014-20241212) also states that:

“Where strategic policy-making authorities do not align with local authority boundaries (either individually or in combination), or the data required for the model are not available, such as in National Parks and the Broads Authority, or local authority areas where the samples are too small, an alternative approach may have to be used.

Such authorities may continue to identify a housing need figure using a method determined locally. In doing so, authorities should take into consideration the best available evidence on the amount of existing housing stock within their planning authority boundary, local house prices, earnings and housing affordability. In the absence of other robust affordability data, authorities should consider the implications of using the median workplace-based affordability ratio for the relevant wider local authority area(s).

For local authorities whose boundaries cross National Parks or Broads Authority areas, the proportion of the local authority area that falls within and outside the National Park or Broads Authority area should also be considered – for example where only a minimal proportion of the existing housing stock of a local authority falls within the National Park or Broads Authority area it may be appropriate to continue to use the local housing need figure derived by the standard method for the local authority are”

4.9 The NPPG adds in paragraph 62, “In addition to the local housing need figure, any needs that cannot be met within neighbouring areas should also be taken into account in establishing the amount of housing to be planned for”.

4.10 Paragraph 63 goes on to set out that within this context, the size, type and tenure of housing needed for different groups in the community should be assessed and reflected in planning policies including, but not limited to, those who require affordable housing, families with children, older people, students, people with disabilities, people who rent their homes and people wishing to commission or build their own homes.

4.11 Paragraphs 64-68 address affordable housing provision. Paragraph 64 states that where an affordable housing need is identified, planning policies should specify the type of affordable housing required (including the minimum proportion of Social Rent homes required) and expect it to be met on-site unless off-site provision or a financial contribution in lieu can be robustly justified, or the agreed approach contributes to the objectives of creating mixed and balanced communities.

4.12 Paragraph 65 states that the provision of affordable housing should not be sought for residential developments that are not major developments (a major development is where 10 or more homes will be provided), other than in designated rural areas.

4.13 Paragraph 66 states, “Where major development involving the provision of housing is proposed, planning policies and decisions should expect that the mix of affordable housing required meets identified local needs, across Social Rent, other affordable housing for rent and affordable home ownership tenures.”

4.14 The NPPF’s Glossary (Annexe 2) provides an updated definition of affordable housing, as well as definitions of Build to Rent development, local housing need, old people, and self-build and custom housebuilding.

Levelling Up and Regeneration Act (2023)

4.15 The Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill was introduced to the House of Commons on 11 May 2022 and received Royal Assent on 26 October 2023, and in doing so became the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act (LURA).¹

4.16 Although the Act initiated several laws which affect planning, none of these laws directly impact the production of this report in relation to the overall need.

4.17 However, it did impact specific groups, including those wishing to self or custom build their own home. This is set out in the appropriate section of this report.

The Planning Practice Guidance

4.18 The Government’s Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) includes several sections which are relevant to the assessment of housing need. This sub-section summarises the relevant sectors.

4.19 Guidance on Housing and Economic Needs Assessments² explains that housing need is “an unconstrained assessment of the number of homes needed in an area” and should be undertaken separately from assessing land availability, establishing a housing requirement figure and preparing policies to address this, such as site allocations.

4.20 The PPG also notes the methodology to be applied when calculating the standard method and notes:

“For local authorities whose boundaries cross National Parks or Broads Authority areas, the proportion of the local authority area that falls within and outside the National Park or Broads Authority area should also be considered – for example where only a minimal proportion of the existing housing stock of a local authority falls within the National Park or Broads Authority area it may be appropriate to continue to use the local housing need figure derived by the standard method for the local authority area.”

4.21 The guidance also examines affordable housing need (as does the PPG relating to the Housing Needs of Different Groups). The PPG sets out how affordable housing need can be assessed, and this is set out in Chapter 9 of this report.

4.22 The affordable housing need (and the housing needs of individual groups) may well exceed, or be proportionally high in relation to, the overall housing need figure calculated using the standard method, as these will often be calculated having consideration of the whole population as opposed to new households.

4.23 The PPG for Housing for Older and Disabled People³ describes the need to provide housing for older people as critical, as people are living longer, and the older population is increasing. It sets out that the health, lifestyle and housing needs of older people will differ greatly, as will their housing need.

4.24 These needs can be met with housing needs ranging from accessible and adaptable general needs housing to specialist housing with high levels of care and support.

4.25 The PPG provides guidance on how the housing needs of older and disabled people can be assessed and sets out that this should inform clear policies within plans, which may include specific site allocations to provide greater certainty to developers.

4.26 Separate guidance is provided on optional technical standards⁴ including for accessible and adaptable housing, use of national space standards and wheelchair-accessible housing.

4.27 Separate PPGs have also been prepared, which address Build to Rent⁵ and Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding⁶. The Build-to-Rent Guidance requires authorities to assess need, and where a need is identified, to include a planning policy setting out the circumstances and locations where build-to-rent development will be encouraged.

4.28 The Self-Build Guidance sets the requirements of the Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding Act 2015 (as amended), including the requirement for local authorities to maintain a Register of those interested in self-build housing and to grant consents to meet the need shown. It also sets out that needs assessments can consider other secondary data sources.

Other Legislation

4.29 Wider legislation affecting housing need includes the 1996 Housing Act (as amended), the Housing and Social Care Act 2012, the 2014 Care Act and the 2017 Homelessness Reduction Act.

4.30 The 2014 Care Act sets out local authorities’ duties in relation to assessing people’s needs and their eligibility for publicly funded care and support.

4.31 Under the Act, local authorities must assess anyone who appears to require care and support and focus the assessment on the person’s needs, how they impact their well-being, and the outcomes they want to achieve.

4.32 Local authorities must also consider other things besides care services that can contribute to the desired outcomes (e.g., preventive services, community support and specialised housing needs).

4.33 The Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 places legal duties on English Councils so that everyone who is homeless or at risk of homelessness will have access to meaningful help.

4.34 Local Authorities have a duty to produce homelessness strategies to prevent homelessness in their respective areas.

New Forest District Local Plan

4.35 The latest Local Plan for New Forest District outside of the National Park area is the Local Plan 2016-2036 Part 1: Planning Strategy, which was adopted in July 2020. The housing policies of the Local Plan were informed by the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) prepared in 2014 and updated by reports on Objectively Assessed Housing Need and Housing Affordability, both published in 2017.

4.36 Policy STR5: Meeting out housing needs sets out the Local Plan requirement of at least 10,420 additional homes in the Plan Area from 2016 to 2036, across a stepped trajectory requiring:

• 2016/2017 to 2020/2021 – 1,500 homes (300 per annum)
• 2021/2022 to 2025/2026 – 2,000 homes (400 per annum)
• 2026/2027 to 2035/2036 – 7,000 homes (700 per annum)

4.37 Across the entire Plan period, this equates to an annual average requirement of 521 net additional homes. To deliver these homes, the Local Plan makes allocations for 6,000 homes on Strategic Site Allocations.

4.38 It also makes provision for an additional 800 homes on sites of 10 or more units through the Local Plan Part 2: Site Allocations and Development Management or through Neighbourhood Plans. Existing commitments account for 2,755 homes, and a further 924 are identified to be delivered by windfall development.

4.39 Policy HOU2 of the Local Plan provides for affordable housing, which requires:

• 35% of new homes in the Totton and Waterside area to be affordable housing; and
• 50% of new homes to be affordable housing in all other areas.

4.40 Of the affordable housing required, Policy HOU2 provides a target for a tenure split of:

• 70% affordable homes for rent, split equally between social and affordable rent, and
• 30% as intermediate or affordable home ownership tenures, including shared ownership.

4.41 The indicative mix of sizes for new homes is set out below:

Source: New Forest District Council

New Forest NPA Local Plan

4.42 The latest Local Plan for the New Forest National Park, the Local Plan 2016 – 2036, was adopted in August 2019.

4.43 The housing policies of the Local Plan were informed by the Strategic Housing Market Area Assessment (SHMAA), prepared in 2014. This SHMAA informed an update report, which was prepared in 2017 to calculate the Objectively Assessed Housing Need for the area for the National Park and the New Forest District.

4.44 The Local Plan does not meet the Objectively Assessed Housing Need figures of 1,260 over the Plan period in full, or 63 dwellings per annum. This was due to the conflict of the new development with statutory designations.

4.45 There was also a modest shortfall of housing delivery against the identified housing target in the adopted New Forest National Park Local Plan.

4.46 Policy SP19 of the Local Plan sets out the planned level of new housing in the National Park, with a figure of 800 additional dwellings over the Local Plan period between 2016 and 2036 (40 per annum).

4.47 The Local Plan allocates five sites to deliver approximately 300 dwellings in the Plan area until 2036. The remaining 500 dwellings planned for were to be met from 400 windfall units (at 20 per annum), 63 completions prior to the adoption of the Local Plan in March 2019, and 114 extant permissions as of March 2019.

4.48 Policy SP27 provides for affordable housing provision within defined villages and on allocated sites. There is a target of 50% affordable housing to be provided on sites delivering 11 dwellings or more, with contributions towards off-site provision sought on developments of between 3 – 10 dwellings (subject to viability).

4.49 Of the 50% affordable housing required, with a starting point target set by Policy SP27 of 75% social/affordable rented tenures and 25% shared ownership / intermediate housing.

4.50 The plan does not set an indication of the mix of new dwellings to be achieved by new development. It recognises, in reference to the SHMAA (2014), that the dwelling stock is skewed towards larger properties, and there is a clear need for smaller dwellings. As such, Policy SP21 states that net new dwellings will have a maximum total internal habitable floor area of 100 square metres. This equates to a 3-bed family dwelling when considered against the Government’s nationally prescribed space standards.

¹ https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2023/55/enacted

² https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-and-economic-development-needs-assessments

³ https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-for-older-and-disabled-people

⁴ https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-optional-technical-standards

⁵ https://www.gov.uk/guidance/build-to-rent

⁶ https://www.gov.uk/guidance/self-build-and-custom-housebuilding

5. Functional Geographies

5.1 This section of the report identifies the functional housing market geographies which operate in and across the New Forest. As a starting point, we have tested the existing Housing Market Areas (HMA) and three sub-areas to determine their continued relevance.

5.2 This assessment draws on commuting and migration patterns from the 2021 Census and house price data from the Land Registry, with the latter particularly useful in identifying sub-areas.

Housing Market Area

5.3 Paragraph 18 of the Plan Making Planning Practice Guidance (PPG)⁷ defines what a Housing Market Area (HMA) is and describes the approach local authorities should take when defining these.

5.4 According to the Guidance, a housing market area is a “geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work.”

5.5 The PPG goes on to add:

“These can be broadly defined by analysing:

The relationship between housing demand and supply across different locations, using house prices and rates of change in house prices. This should identify areas which have clearly different price levels compared to surrounding areas.

Migration flow and housing search patterns. This can help identify the extent to which people move house within an area, in particular where a relatively high proportion of short household moves are contained, (due to connections to families, jobs, and schools).

Contextual data such as travel to work areas, retail and school catchment areas. These can provide information about the areas within which people move without changing other aspects of their lives (e.g. work or service use).”

5.6 The guidance finally sets out a range of suggested data sources for doing this. These are:

“Office for National Statistics (internal migration and travel to work areas statistics); Land Registry House Price Index and Price Paid data (including sales); data from estate agents and local newspapers about geographical coverage of houses advertised for sale and rent; Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government statistics including live tables on affordability (lower quartile house prices/lower quartile earnings); and neighbourhood data from the Census.”

5.7 This slimmed-down guidance notably omits any self-containment threshold for defining HMAs. This is unlike the previous version of the PPG which stated that migration self-containment of “typically 70 per cent” excluding long-distance moves can help identify a suitable HMA.

5.8 The scale of a Housing Market Area and its required self-containment rate is therefore less definitive if it is identified using the approach in the PPG. However, it is considered that the Government’s previous advice remains of some relevance.

5.9 It is also worth noting that HMA boundaries do not stop and start at administrative boundaries. Despite this, it is often commonplace for housing market areas to be defined using local authority boundaries. This is because many of the key datasets used in both defining housing market geographies and housing need (such as the household projections) are only published at a local authority level.

5.10 A pragmatic response is therefore to define HMAs at a local authority level but recognises that the functional geography likely goes beyond administrative boundaries.

5.11 These issues were touched upon in the Planning Advisory Services Technical Advice Note on Objectively Assessed Housing Need and Housing Targets (July 2015) which concluded that:

“It is best if HMAs, as defined for the purpose of needs assessments, do not straddle local authority boundaries. For areas smaller than local authorities data availability is poor and analysis becomes impossibly complex. There may also be ‘cliff edge’ effects at the HMA boundary, for example, development allowed on one side of a road but not the other.”

5.12 However, the Technical Advice Note notably adds:

“This is not always possible, and it may be the case that some areas, particularly those covering an expansive area fall into more than one HMA”.

Previous Definitions

5.13 The New Forest District Council and National Park Authority jointly commissioned a SHMA in 2014. The assessment noted that ‘the New Forest’ (National Park and District) falls principally within the Southampton-focused Housing Market Area. This reflected the 2001 HMA definition produced by the Ministry for Communities and Local Government.

5.14 The report also acknowledges that parts of the New Forest also have functional links to the Bournemouth (Ringwood) and Salisbury (Fordingbridge) Housing Market Areas. While these relationships may remain, both Bournemouth (BCP) and Salisbury (Wiltshire) are now in larger local authority areas.

5.15 The report concludes that the New Forest area “is most closely related to and integrated into the Southampton Housing Market Area (as defined in the PUSH SHMA)”.

5.16 The PUSH SHMA, also published in 2014, concluded that the Southampton Housing Market Area (HMA) comprises: Southampton, Eastleigh, Southern Test Valley, Eastern New Forest, and the western wards of Winchester and Fareham.

5.17 However, the report also highlights “other significant patterns and relationships” including with Bournemouth, East Dorset and Christchurch, particularly, with the New Milton/Barton-on-Sea areas, as well as Ringwood.

5.18 The study states that these cross-boundary Housing Market Area relationships should be considered through the Duty to Cooperate when developing housing policy for the New Forest.

Migration Flows

5.19 Using 2021 Census data, it is possible to examine the strength of the relationship between local authorities and plot the flows between different LSOAs.

In migration

5.20 The highest inflows to the New Forest are from BCP, Southampton, Wiltshire and Dorset. All of which exceed 2% of flows, and when combined, make up around 17% of all movements into the New Forest.

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.21 The map below shows the origin of the most significant flow to each LSOA in the New Forest district. As shown, the eastern part of the district has a strong relationship with Southampton, while the south, central and western parts of the New Forest are most closely related to BCP. Finally, the north of the district has relationships with Wiltshire and Dorset.

Figure 5.1 In-migration (2021)

Source: ONS, Census 2021

Out Migration

5.22 For out migration the most common destinations are also BCP, Southampton and Dorset although Wiltshire is exceeded by Test Valley. The top four local authorities combine for 20% of the out-flows suggesting a more concentrated area of out-migration.

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.23 We have also produced the map below which examines the most common destination outside of the district. As illustrated, the area with the strongest relationship with Southampton is greater for out-migration than in-migration as it extends to Lyndhurst.

5.24 Conversely, the area with a close relationship with BCP is smaller particularly to the north. The area to the northwest shows a distinct pattern of inflows from Dorset and outflow to Wiltshire.

Figure 5.2 Out-migration (2021)

Source: ONS, Census 2021

Gross Migration

5.25 It should be noted that larger cities (and other local authorities) with a large population also see larger in and out-flows. Therefore, as well as gross flows in their absolute terms we have weighted these trends to account for the respective population size between the two areas.

5.26 Gross flows to/from the New Forest are shown in the table below. As illustrated, the strongest absolute relationships are with BCP, Southampton and to a lesser degree Dorset and even though they have large populations the weighted flows are also the highest.

5.27 Wiltshire has a stronger gross migration trend with the New Forest than Test Valley, Eastleigh and Winchester but with a population of over half a million, (it is the 11th largest local authority in the Country in population terms) the higher flows would be expected and thus when weighted to reflect the population it falls behind these areas.

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.28 This analysis would suggest that the New Forest's strongest relationships with BCP and Southampton are similar but both are notably stronger than those with Dorset and Test Valley.

Self-Containment Rate

5.29 This section calculates self-containment rates using the 2021 Census. It should be noted that the 2021 Census was taken during a period of partial lockdown therefore dynamics in both migration and commuting terms may be affected.

5.30 One of the previous benchmarks for identifying a HMA was self-containment levels although this has subsequently been removed from the PPG.

5.31 Self-containment rates are the percentage of moves to or from an area originating from the same area. The guidance suggested that a self-containment rate of 70% would be typical of an HMA.

5.32 The guidance also suggested long-distance moves should be excluded as these would include such things as people retiring to the area or moving for university which would typically be outside of the HMA they reside.

5.33 We have used data from the 2021 Census which reports on internal moves. In migration terms, 14,514 people moved from a home in the New Forest district in the year before the 2021 census, of these 7,886 moved to another home in the district. This equates to an origin self-containment rate of around 54.3%.

5.34 Alternatively, 14,985 people moved to the New Forest District in the year before the 2021 census, of these 7,886 moved from elsewhere in the district. This equates to a destination self-containment rate of around 52.7%.

5.35 However, if long-distance moves (defined as those outside of Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset and the Isle of Wight) are excluded, then the self-containment rates increase to 65.7% and 65.3% respectively. How these figures are derived is set out in the table below.

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.36 By this measure, the New Forest District is therefore not meeting the 70% self-containment threshold indicating that it should not be considered an HMA in its own right and it should be joined with those it has a close link with to exceed this threshold.

5.37 Initially, we have looked at a combination of New Forest and BCP and Southampton as its closest migratory relationships.

5.38 BCP in its own right has a self-containment rate of 68% out-migration and 63% of in-migration, which increases to 84% and 87% respectively when long-distance moves are excluded.

5.39 Likewise, Southampton has a self-containment rate of 63% out-migration and 60% of in-migration, which increases to 77% and 80% respectively when long-distance moves are excluded.

5.40 When the New Forest is added to the rates, excluding long-distance moves, the self-containment rate of BCP and New Forest changes to 84% and 86% and for Southampton and New Forest 77% and 79% respectively.

5.41 In both cases, the out-migration self-containment rate remains the same and the in-migration self-containment rate decreases slightly.

5.42 Because this migration analysis is inconclusive as to which way New Forest should link up, it would reiterate the previous definition, which largely splits the district between the BCP and Southampton-focused HMAs and with a small area linked to Wiltshire, and particularly Salisbury, based on migration alone.

5.43 While this analysis splits the district, for many the New Forest and particularly the New Forest National Park is a market in its own right as people specifically search for properties within the National Park.

Commuting Flows

5.44 The commuting analysis once again draws on the 2021 Census, although it should be stressed that this was taken during a period of partial lockdown. For that reason, we see significant levels of working from home, which is incomparable with the previous Census.

In Commuting

5.45 In total, there are approximately 79,600 people in employment within the New Forest District. Of these, 61,800 (78% self-containment rate) are taken up by people also living in the district.

5.46 This includes 36,600 who work from home, which compares to 25,200 whose place of work is within the district but not at home. When those working from home are excluded from the calculation, the self-containment rate of jobs falls to 59%.

5.47 The most common origins of those who commute into the New Forest for work are BCP (5,000), Southampton (4,300) and Dorset (3,000). This then falls to 1,300 from Eastleigh and 1,100 from Test Valley.

Source: ONS, Census 2021

Out Commuting

5.48 In total, 78,700 residents of the New Forest are in employment. Of these, 61,800 (79% self-containment rate) are people who also work in the district.

5.49 When those working from home are excluded from the calculation the self-containment rate of residents falls to 60%.

5.50 The most common destinations of those who commute out of the New Forest for work are Southampton (5,000), BCP (3,300), Dorset (1,800) and Test Valley (1,500).

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.51 Overall, the district sees net in-commuting of around 900 people with 17,800 people commuting in and only 16,900 commuting out. This varies by neighbouring authority with BCP sending more people to New Forest than it receives, and the reverse is true for Southampton.

5.52 The figure below illustrates where residents in each of the MSOAs in the New Forest, commute out to. As shown, there is a clear east-west split in the New Forest with the western side’s residents including those that live in Lymington, commuting more frequently to BCP than anywhere else.

5.53 The eastern side of the district, including Totton and the Waterside and Lyndhurst, see greater numbers commuting to Southampton than anywhere else which is perhaps unsurprising given parts of the area such as Hythe have (had) easy access to the City.

5.54 Finally, the area to the northwest of the district, including Fordingbridge, commutes out to Wiltshire more so than anywhere else outside of the district.

Figure 5.3 Most Common External Workplace – Out Migration (2021)

Source: ONS, Census 2021

5.55 This once again indicates a split within the district along similar lines to the migration dynamics.

House Price Data

5.56 The final factor we have examined when identifying the HMA is house prices. We have used price-paid data from the Land Registry to build a heat map of prices across the district.

5.57 As illustrated house prices in the National Park and the Coastal Areas are notably higher than in the rest of the district. There are particularly low-value areas in Totton and the Waterside and the other major urban areas of New Milton and Ringwood, which will be influenced by the mix of housing.

Figure 5.4 House Price (2023-24)

Source: Land Registry, 2024

5.58 The analysis does not drive forward the analysis of housing market areas but does help support the previously defined sub-areas. Similarly, the split in migration and commuting intention also supports multiple sub-areas.

5.59 As a further consideration, this work is being partly commissioned by the New Forest National Park Authority and as shown the National Park area has distinct house price characteristics.

5.60 However, National Park boundaries are not drawn on any standard administrative area (instead the boundaries are established primarily on landscape grounds), but we can produce a best fit of Output Area (OA) areas based on population-weighted centroids that fall within the National Park boundaries.

5.61 The figure below confirms the sub-areas that we have used. These are principally the same as those defined in the previous work, but they have been updated to reflect changes to the New Forest National Park OA-based boundary.

Figure 5.5 Concluded Sub-Areas

Source: Iceni Projects based on ONS Output Areas

5.62 We also recognise that the National Park sub-area extends outside of the New Forest District area. Nine output areas fall outside of the district (8 in Wiltshire and 1 in Test Valley) and these output areas have all been included in this analysis as the National Park Authority is a commissioner of this work.

⁷ Reference ID: 61-018-20190315